Friday, March 02, 2007

Talpiyot Tomb - Statistics

The film site has some number like 600 to 1 in favour.
A lot of talk about taking the large number of occurrences of the names and then statistical analysing down to the sons of Joseph with a mother Mary with a brother Yosa etc

Also some thoughts on numbers on James Tabor's blog - one of the film team
Talks about "population of Jerusalem being 50,000 and if they were all in a stadium......then there would be so many". One trouble with that is Jesus did not live in Jerusalem so if we are saying a family that did not live in Jerusalem then we need the whole population of the Jewish nation in that area and over several generations not just at one moment in the capital city.

All that depends on the relationships of the people in the tomb being the same as Mary's family but nothing confirms that those are the relationships so the statistical analysis falls

A senior Israeli archaeologist who thoroughly researched the tomb after its discovery, and at the time deciphered the inscriptions, cast serious doubt on the documentary's claim. "It's a beautiful story but without any proof whatsoever," Professor Amos Kloner, who published the findings of his research in the Israeli periodical Atiqot in 1996, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur on Friday.

"The names that are found on the tombs are names that are similar to the names of the family of Jesus," he said. "But those were the most common names found among Jews in the first centuries BCE and CE," he added. He dismissed the combination of names found in the cave as a "coincidence".

The newsgroup sci.archaeology has a Different view on the statistics - now its 12 to 1 against

And Cadre comments - Looking at the numbers
starts to consider the fact that several generations are involved so more than one lot of 50,000 are in the base numbers.

This one is on the track

as is this

The correct interpretation of 1:600 odds calculation

The Statistical Case for the Identity of the "Jesus Family Tomb"

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